This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday January 17, 2018 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)  

Wet loose -  Warm temps and high freezing levels continue into Tuesday.  Light to moderate rain will fall Monday and begin to change to snow mid Tuesday as the freezing levels finally begin to descend.  These factors will therefore still mean the potential for wet loose avalanches, even thought the majority of the slopes that would produce these types of slides most likely released with the rain event last Saturday. These avalanches will be on slopes of all elevations and aspects, will be up to size 1-1.5 and may possibly trigger naturally and are likely with human activity.   

Wind slab and Storm slab - As our freezing levels and temps drop back to winter proper, precipitation will begin to fall as snow in the hills mid Tuesday.  Mid Wednesday will see the brunt of this new storm system with heavy snowfall into Thursday.  This new snow will potentially produce storm slabs in the alpine and on "alpine like" treeline features on all aspects up to size 2 with natural triggering possible and human triggering possible to likely.   Accompanied by strong south east winds, the new snow is likely to create wind slabs on north-west aspects in the alpine, treeline and open zones below treeline.  These slabs could produce avalanches up to size 2-2.5 and will possibly trigger naturally and are likely to trigger with human activity.  A short spike in freezing level and temperature late Wednesday afternoon into the early hours of Thursday will potentially make our slab problem more reactive to triggering as it increases the load on the new snow.   

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Winter version 5.0 is on its way during our season of fluctuating spring/winter conditions.  Last Saturday's rain and Sunday's warm temps have essentially reset our snowpack, so the main thing to be wary of is where the new snow is falling and being transported to with the winds.  Watch for loaded slopes and bowls and study how well the new snow is bonding to the old.  Be especially cautious of route choice later in the day Wednesday with the temperature spike increasing the likelihood of triggering an avalanche in the new snow.            

Past Weather:  Very high freezing levels (up towards 3000 m) accompanied light to moderate rain Saturday, right to to top of our island summits. Sunday things cleared up and brought very warm temperatures to the unseasonable range of 10 degrees on the slopes. Spring skiing conditions everywhere..      

Avalanche Summary: Saturday's warm temps and rain created a flurry of avalanche activity on all aspects and elevations, producing numerous loose wet slides triggered both naturally and human.  Those reported were fortunately in the size range of only 1-1.5, but we could expect some in the alpine were greater, if we had any alpine observations.      

Snow Pack Description:

Surface - A thin new melt freeze crust has been forming overnight in the alpine and open high treeline with day time temps decomposing it.  

Upper - Rain and warm temps have resulted in rapid settlement of the upper snowpack.  All elevations and aspects are now moist (with solar aspects going wet during Sunday's sun and warm temps).    

Mid - As temps and freezing levels begin to drop, the moist well settled upper snowpack will tighten and all but eliminate any concerns of the mid Jan, Dec and Nov crusts.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   Mild temps and light rain Monday into Tuesday will ease into light snowfall.  Strong south westerly flows will flush out the unseasonably warm weather, bringing us a new strong pacific storm late Wednesday into Thursday with significant snowfall.  The new system will arrive with a short lived spike in temperatures and strong south east winds.  Expect cloudy conditions over the forecast period so be prepaired for more difficult route finding in unknown terrain.   

Mon - 8-20 mm of rain. Winds moderate from the south east.

Freezing levels of 3000-1700 m

Tues - 8-14 mm of rain and 5-15 cm of snow.  Winds light to strong south east. 

Freezing levels of  1600-500 m

Wed - 30-50 cm of snow and 10-20 mm of rain. Winds moderate to strong south east.

Freezing levels of 700-1500 m

Prepared by Bill Phipps

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday January 12, 2018 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Storm slab - New snow through the forecast period with the bulk falling Wednesday night into Thursday will create storm slabs up to size 1 in the alpine and open exposed treeline. These slabs will be possibly triggered by human activity and will be on all aspects.  

Wind slab -  Wednesday/Thursdays storm will come in with moderate south east winds.  These winds will create wind slabs in the alpine, open exposed treeline, and on lee sides of ridge top features.  Found in specific terrain, these slabs will be likely-possibly triggered by human activity and have the potential to be up to size 2

Deep persistent slab - Significant new snow has fallen since January 7th on a rain crust formed on the 6th.  The bond of the new snow to this crust, and a layer just above it, have shown in tests to be weak.  Moderate snow fall this Wednesday night into Thursday might just be the additional load to trigger down to this layer and/or  other avalanches running above this layer have the potential to "step down" to this layer, vastly increasing the avalanche size. This deep layer will be unlikely to initiate, but possible in areas of thinner snowpack depths (like near ridge top or around rocky features) or with a large natural triggers.  They would be found in the lower alpine and treeline and have the potential to be up to size 2-2.5

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Avoid steep loaded slopes and features with north-west aspects that gather wind transported snow.  Watch new snowfall amounts over Wednesday night and use careful route finding and cautious decision making after the storm cycle.  Snowpack evaluation/tests Thursday will be important information to gather if traveling in more challenging terrain.          

Past Weather:  Strong (up to 70k mph) winds from the south-east accompanied the new snowfall (up to 15cm) Sunday.  Monday a spike in the freezing level  (up to 1300m) increased temperatures and left a thin melt freeze crust on solar aspects after it pasted, in all but the alpine elevations.  Late Monday into Tuesday another wave of new snow fell on the hills bringing anywhere from 12-20cms of fresh.   

Avalanche Summary: Sunday avalanche control on Mt Washington saw a few very soft slab-loose avalanches on north west slopes in the treeline with ski cutting and explosives.  Ski cutting in other near ski hill terrain produced numerous very small wind slab avalanches on convex unsupported ridge top features.  A skier accidental in out of bounds terrain at Mt Cain (west bowl) was also was reported in the size 1.5-2 range (see incident reports section for more details).  Monday ,once visibility improved, several small naturally triggered point releases were seen from steep north aspects at treeline on the back of Mount Washington (most probably running prior during Sundays storm) and one small wet slab size 1 was noted by skiers on Mt Elma ,in paradise meadows, on a open north aspect unsupported convex roll below treeline (associated with the 1300m freezing level spike no doubt).   So an active three days for avalanches for the island.     

Snow Pack Description:

Surface - Preserved new snow in sheltered zones in the treeline and below treeline elevations.  Alpine and exposed treeline have stiffer wind pressed snow and ridge tops have some isolated zones of wind stripped exposed crust.  

Upper - New snow everywhere with a thin non-supportive crust on solar aspects, approximately 12-20 cm down on below treeline and treeline terrain from Monday's warm spike.  Sunday's new snow (15-5cm) has created wind slabs (now buried) on north to west aspects in the alpine and treeline.  All this new load is sitting on the January 7th rain crust and has shown significant weakness and failures in tests.  

Mid - The new snow and crust buried on Jan 7th is now bridging and almost eliminating concerns surrounding the mid Dec and mid Nov crusts. The moist mid snowpack seams very stable producing only hard results in tests on the Dec crust.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   Light snowfall with cloudy skies and cold temperatures Wednesday. Fallowed (Thursday) by a new storm system via moderate southeast winds, bringing snowfall amounts from 5-15cm in the north to 15-25cm for the west coast and 10-15cm for the east. Light snow at first Friday and then a trend (unfortunately) toward warming and high freezing levels for the weekend. 

Wed - 1-5 cm of new snow. Winds light south east to south west.

Freezing levels of 140-900 m

Thurs -   5-25 cm of snow.  Winds moderate south east. 

Freezing levels of  400-1000m

Fri - 2-7 cm of new snow. Winds light west to moderate south.

Freezing levels of 0-1250 m

Prepared by Bill Phipps

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday January 7, 2018 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet - High freezing levels, warm temps and significant RAIN Thursday into Friday will weaken the upper snowpack and will almost certainly produce Loose Wet avalanches from sz 1-1.5 both with natural and human triggers.  These will be possible at all elevations and aspects, but are more of a concern in the treeline and alpine.  Luckily as we move into the weekend temps will drop, tightening the upper snowpack and precipitation will come in the form of snow, reducing this avalanche problem.  

Wind/Storm Slab - Snow will start to fall late Friday afternoon in north and Friday evening in the west and south.  New snowfall amounts will be light at first (Friday and Saturday).  Sunday will see moderate-heavy snowfall.  This new snow will likely produce storm slabs with an avalanche size potential up to size 1.5-2 on all aspects in the alpine and treeline with a likelihood of triggering by human activity.  Strong south east winds will accompany Sundays new snow, forming wind slabs on north to west aspects in the alpine and exposed/open treeline.  These wind slabs will have the potential to create avalanches up to size 2-2.5 and  are likely-very likely to be triggered by people or naturally.  

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Friday avoid exposure to terrain traps as wet loose slides tend to pack a punch.  Stay away from gullies, and don't travel above cliffs, trees, rocks, and depressions that are exposed to large steep slopes above.  Give avalanche paths and their runout zones a wide berth as wet sides tend to travel further than we expect. 

Sunday avoid convex, unsupported and steep open slopes in the alpine especially on north-west aspects where the wind will load start zones significantly.  Take extra caution when moving up from one elevation band into the next.    

Past Weather:  No new snow in the forecast area with light-moderate (16-26 km/h) south to south east winds.  Daytime temps were warm from 0 to 10 degrees in the alpine and treeline with cold temps only lingering near valley bottom.  Light to moderate rain began late afternoon on Thursday all the way up into the alpine. 

Avalanche Summary: No new avalanche activity was reported. 

Snow Pack Description:

Surface - freezing levels and warm temps during the day have caused  moist surface snow conditions on all aspect and elevations. 

Upper - Previous new snow has settled rapidly with the warm temps and is moist on all aspects and at all elevations. This snow is bonding well to the December 15 crust.     

Mid - Well settled. Snow pit tests produced only hard results on the mid November crust and concerns are limited even more by the bridging December 15 crust above. 

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: Warm temps, high freezing levels and rain Friday will begin to wain mid afternoon to the north and in the evening to the west and south.  New snow will fall in the mountains late Friday and Saturday in light to moderate amounts.  Saturday night-Sunday a new big system will arrive with strong south east winds and incredible new snow. Forecast amounts for this bulletin time frame show a potential of 14-50 cm of new.  Yeah!  

Fri - 15-40 mm of rain tapering into 2-10 cm of new snow. Winds moderate-strong 20-50 km/h from variable directions.

Freezing levels of 2400-750 m

Sat - 2-10 cm of snow.  Winds light early on from the west-south west, increasing to strong  40-50 km/h from the southeast, pushing our wonderful snow filled system our way  

Freezing levels of 500-800 m

Sun - 10-30 cm of new snow. Winds strong south east tapering to light 45-13 km/h.

Freezing levels of 550-900 m

Prepared by Bill Phipps

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday January 3rd, 2018 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab - Recent moderate winds from the NW have created areas of wind slab at all elevations on SW-SE aspects. Natural avalanches are unlikely but these slabs may possibly be triggered by a human early in the week. In large alpine features these avalanches could be large (size 2).

Loose Wet - Rising freezing levels and temperatures may cause natural loose wet avalanches at all elevations on solar aspects especially in steep terrain with shallow snow and exposed rocks and trees. These avalanches are likely to be small.

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Avoid wind loaded features and solar aspects in the afternoon. Take note of condition changes through elevation bands. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences near terrain traps.

Past Weather: 20 - 60 cm of new snow with higher totals on the west coast followed by a clearing western flow.

Avalanche Summary: No natural avalanches were observed. Ski cutting produced several small wind slabs on SW-SE terrain at all elevations on Saturday with crowns of 20 -40 cm deep sliding on the December inversion crust.

Snow Pack Description:

Surface - Recent low density storm snow up to 60 cm on a variety of old surfaces. This snow has shown signs of moderate bonding to previous layers.

Upper - Cold, dry unconsolidated snow is present on all aspects above 800 m. There is a density change within this snow that has exhibited some weak bonding properties just above the December crust. 

Mid - Well settled.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: Warm and low winds 

Mon - 0-3 mm. Winds light and variable.

Freezing levels of 500-2300 m

Tue - 0-3 mm.  Winds light 5-20 km/h from the southeast.  

Freezing levels of 1350-2600 m

Wed - 0-3 mm. Winds southeast 12-18 km/h.

Freezing levels of 1300-2500 m

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday December 29th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab -  Recent new snow load and wind affect at upper elevations is highly variable. Both soft and hard wind slab can be found on leeward slopes in the alpine and exposed treeline areas. These problems are most likely to be encountered on southerly aspects. Natural avalanches are possible, especially if the incoming storm produces significant precipitation. These slabs will likely be reactive to light loads such as a skier or rider. Avalanches have the potential to be large in size, especially on large alpine features.

Storm Slab - Incoming precipitation and wind will likely create a new round of storm slab avalanches. These slabs are most likely to develop in the alpine and treeline elevations with the potential to be found on all aspects. Natural avalanches will be possible, especially at the height of the storm and may very likely be triggerable by a human. If the higher amounts of accumulation are received, these avalanches could be large in size.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Be observant of storm snow totals and avoid recently wind loaded slopes and rollovers in the alpine and at treeline. Conditions will be more dangerous during the peak of the storm and will take some time to settle down. Keep an eye on rising freezing levels which will contribute to greater instability of the upper snow pack. Watch and listen for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or whumpfing. Test low consequence slopes and rolls and take note of the aspect, elevation and terrain characteristics.

Past Weather: Continued cold temperatures and light winds have dominated the story lately. Several weak disturbances have pushed through and delivered a small amount of snow accumulation to the Island mountains. 

Avalanche Summary: No avalanches observed.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Highly variable surface conditions exist at all elevations. A recent dusting now covers the old surfaces which includes the dominant December inversion crust and is showing signs of bonding moderately well.

Upper - Variable dependent on aspect and elevation. Some surface hoar has been observed in protected areas at treeline and below which is now buried by the recent snow.

Mid - Well settled.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: A series of warm fronts will bring precipitation and a warming trend to Vancouver Island for the next few days. A weak system on Wednesday followed by a stronger warm front on Thursday will provide snow at higher elevations as the freezing levels rise. There will be a possibility of freezing rain in some elevation bands.

Wed - 8-18 cm of snow with the southern region seeing higher totals. Winds 30-15 km/h southwest.

Freezing levels of 300-1400 m. Higher freezing levels in the north. 

Thu - 14-23 cm of snow at higher elevations. Winds light southwest veering to light southeast. 14-32 km/h.  

Freezing levels of 440-1400 m.

Fri - 3-10 cm of snow above 1000 m.  Winds southwest 12-23 km/h. Variable in the afternoon.

Freezing levels of 500-1250 m.

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

This Bulletin Valid Until: Monday December 25th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab -  Strong NE through W winds have redistributed Tuesday's storm snow in the alpine and at treeline elevations. This redistribution has been highly variable and has resulted in deposits of both stiff and soft slabs on E through SW aspects. These pockets of wind slab overlie a crust which may act as a sliding surface and will be loaded further with new snow and wind forecast for Sunday. The elevated hazard rating reflects areas within the forecast region that see greater totals of predicted snow. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggering is likely. Large alpine features where these conditions exist have the potential to produce large avalanches (size 2+).

Travel/Terrain Advice: Avoid recently loaded slopes and rollovers in the alpine and at treeline. Be aware that smaller hard slab avalanches have the potential to have higher consequences than low density slabs. Watch and listen for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or whumpfing. Cold air and snow temperatures will contribute to slower bonding and settlement and the chance of a lingering avalanche problem.

Past Weather: A strong winter storm on Tuesday delivered snow totals up to 40 cm on eastern Vancouver Island with the western and northern areas seeing less accumulation (10-15 cm). Directly following the band of precipitation, strong NE through W winds stripped windward slopes back down to the old crust and deposited the storm snow into lee terrain and also lower elevations. Wednesday and Thursday brought continued cold temperatures and low freezing levels and little to no precipitation.

Avalanche Summary: On Tuesday numerous small soft storm slabs were reported at treeline on NW through NE aspects on all sufficiently steep slopes in the Mount Washington area. These avalanches were touchy to very touchy to ski cutting and were failing on the old crust that was buried 20-40 cm. One natural slab avalanche was observed at treeline on a SW aspect failing at the crust. On Wednesday a small wind slab was triggered at treeline on a SE slope by a snowmobile. Numerous snowmobiles were observed high marking at treeline on an alpine-like feature on a N-NW aspect with no result. 

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Highly variable distribution of recent storm snow. Exposed crust in all windward (NE-W) alpine and treeline terrain. Pockets of stiff and soft wind slab in lee and protected areas. Sheltered terrain below treeline has low density dry snow of up to 40 cm on the mid December crust. 

Upper - Variable dependent on aspect and elevation. 10-40 cm of new snow overlies the old crust layer and has shown poor signs of bonding.

Mid - Well settled.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: An arctic ridge of high pressure bringing clear skies and cold outflow winds will dominate Friday and Saturday. Sunday will see a trough of low pressure break through the ridge and bring precipitation to the coast. Cold temperatures, low freezing levels, and light to moderate winds from the SE will accompany the system.

Fri - 0-3 cm of snow. Winds 30-15 km/h northeast.

Freezing levels of 0-800 m

Sat - Trace amounts of snow on the north and south Island. Winds from the southeast 17-40 km/h.     

Freezing levels of 0-290 m

Sun - 5-20 cm of snow with greatest amounts in south and east regions.  Winds southeast 15-40 km/h veering to 10-18 km/h northwest.

Freezing levels of 0-600 m

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday December 20th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Wind Slab -  Recent and continued snow at alpine and treeline elevations combined with winds from the SE of 15-35 km/h will create wind loaded pockets in the alpine and at treeline ridge tops mostly on NW through E facing slopes. Some natural slab avalanches are possible and will very likely be triggered by a human. These avalanches have the potential to be large (size 2) in size.

Travel/Terrain Advice:  Watch for any signs of instability as you travel through the terrain. Cracks, whumpfing or signs of recent avalanches should raise caution. Be especially aware when transitioning into any wind loaded features such as ridge tops and rollovers.

Past Weather: A break in the high pressure ridge that has dominated BC weather since early December has brought a mixing of lower layers of atmosphere and an end to the entrenched temperature inversion. In it's wake, temperatures and freezing levels have dropped to a more seasonal value and a series of Pacific frontal systems has brought light to moderate snowfall to the Vancouver Island mountains above 1300 m. Winds in the range of 15-45 km/h have accompanied these somewhat weak systems.

Avalanche Summary: No new direct observations over the weekend but audible reports in the Mount Cain area with no confirmation. 

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - 5-20 cm of new snow above 1300 m with greater amounts to the north and west of the region have been distributed by light to moderate winds creating loaded pockets up to 50 cm. This new snow appears to be bonding moderately well to the varied old crust surface.

Upper - Snow temperatures are beginning to cool and continue to settle and bond to rain crusts that were formed and buried in November. Some sugary snow has been observed around the recent crust that has lingered for the past two weeks.

Mid - Well settled.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: Light to moderate snowfall, cool temperatures and freezing levels to sea level will be the story for the next 72 hrs. It looks as though another ridge of high pressure is building for the coming week bringing more clear skies.

Mon - 2-11 cm of snow with higher amounts in central Strathcona Park. Winds west switching to east 15-30 km/h.

Freezing levels of 380-1100 m

Tue - 2-10 cm of snow with greater amounts in south Strathcona Park. Winds from the north 20-35 km/h.     

Freezing levels of 0-650 m

Wed - No new precipitation.  Winds NNW 30-60 km/h.

Freezing levels of 0-650 m

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

This Bulletin Valid Until: Friday December 15th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Confidence: High - Continued stable weather pattern.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet -  Small loose wet avalanches are unlikely but possible on steep sunny slopes in the alpine and treeline elevations.

Travel/Terrain Advice: Spring-like conditions continue to persist. Assess sunny slopes especially once the snow becomes moist or wet. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences when travelling above cliffs or terrain traps. Watch for early season hazards such as exposed creeks, stumps, and tree wells especially below treeline.

Past Weather: Vancouver Island has seen a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE through SW winds and temperatures ranging from -3oC to +13oC. Freezing levels have continued to be unseasonably high.

Avalanche Summary: No new avalanches observed. Skiing on steep unsupported features did not produce any result.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Sun crust forming on all aspects and elevations. Crust remains intact in shaded terrain and becomes moist quickly on solar aspects.

Upper - Snow remains cold and continues to settle and bond to rain crusts that were formed and buried in November.

Mid - Well settled.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: It looks as though the massive ridge of high pressure that has dominated the province will weaken by Thursday and will allow a variety of Pacific systems to move onto the BC coast. These systems will bring periods of light precipitation and light to moderate variable winds that will mix the lower layers of atmosphere, eliminating the persistent temperature inversion and ushering in cooler temperatures and more seasonal freezing levels. 

Wed - No new precipitation. Winds light to NW veering to light SE

Freezing levels of 1200-3850 m

Thu - 1-7 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate SW                      

Freezing levels of 1500-3700 m

Fri - 0-3 mm of precipitation.  Winds light to moderate NW                                          

Freezing levels of 550-2000 m

Prepared by Dan Goodwin

This Bulletin Valid Until: Sunday December 10th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Confidence: Moderate - Stable weather pattern, minimal alpine observations.

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet -  Continued high temperatures and freezing levels combined with periods of light rain are likely/very likely to produce avalanches from small to large especially on solar aspects at all elevations.   

Travel/Terrain Advice: Spring-like conditions should persist through the forecast period. Avoid sunny slopes especially once the snow becomes moist or wet. Small loose wet avalanches have the potential for high consequences when travelling above cliffs or terrain traps. Watch for early season hazards such as exposed creeks, stumps, and tree wells especially below treeline.

Past Weather: Vancouver Island has seen a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE winds and temperatures ranging from -4oC to +12oC. Freezing levels have been above the highest of the peaks of the Island for the majority of the time.

Avalanche Summary: A few small loose wet avalanches at treeline and below treeline on exposed solar aspects. Small pinwheels forming.

Snow Pack Description:  

Surface - Thin unsupportive melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevation in the morning, becoming moist in the afternoon. In shaded areas snow remains cold.

Upper - Snow remains cold and supportive on all but the most solar of aspects at all elevations. Some light wind transport from the dominant SE winds at treeline and alpine forming small drifts and exposing crust on windward slopes.

Mid - Well settled crust complex.

Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast: Light precipitation for the weekend likely in the form of rain for all but the highest elevations. Temperatures and freezing levels will remain high with potential freezing levels of up to 3600 m with the persistent high pressure system. Temperature inversion with low level clouds and morning fog in coastal sections.

Fri - No new snow. Winds light to moderate S-SE                                                  

Freezing level to 1200-3500 m

Sat - 1-7 mm of precipitation. Winds moderate SE                      

Freezing level to 950-3100 m

Sun - 0-5 mm of precipitation.  Winds light to moderate SE                                           

Freezing level to 2500-3700 m

Prepared by Dan Goodwin