This Bulletin Valid Until: Wednesday December 6th, 2017 @ 6 pm. 

Confidence:  Moderate- no alpine snow pack observations and most obs limited to Eastern Central Vancouver Island

Main Concerns: (Avalanche problems)

Loose Wet-   Early Tues-Wed rising temps and freezing levels are likely/very likely to produced avalanches from small to large, especially on solar aspects at all elevations.   

Wet Slab-  Recent storm snow and wind loaded areas overlying the upper rain crust could possibly/likely produce wet slab avalanches with the forecasted warming.  These avalanches have the potential to be large-very large in the upper tree line to alpine. 

Travel/Terrain Advice: Remember to check that avalanche safety equipment is in proper working order and don't just jump right back into the GNAR.  With early season conditions and forecasted warming numerous hazards like creeks, rock and stumps will become a real concern.  Even small loose wet avalanches have the force to push one into terrain traps below.  Avoid exposing yourself above terrain traps like depressions, cliffs, trees.  Avoid exposure to large alpine avalanche paths in all elevation bands.  Very large wet slab avalanches have the potential to reach into below tree line.   

Past Weather: The eastern island has seen minimal precipitation, light winds and cool temperatures.  Precipitation totals are slightly greater for western regions of the forecast area.  Freezing levels across the forecast region have ranged from sea level to 1000 m.   

Avalanche Summary:   A few very small soft slab avalanches were observed Saturday morning in the freshly fallen snow, both by ski cut and natural triggering on SW-NE aspects at tree line.  Skiing and sledding in steep unsupported terrain below and at tree line produced no results on Sunday on SW-NE aspects.  

Snow pack Description:  

Surface- New light snow 30-40 cm 

Upper-  Numerous supportive rain crusts exist in the upper snow pack.

Mid-  Well settled 

Lower- Well settled.

Weather Forecast:   Temperatures and freezing levels will take a dramatic jump up (potential freezing levels of up to 3600m) starting Tuesday with an approach of a large high pressure system. 

Mon- 0 cm to a trace of new snow.  Winds light to mod NW                                                  

Freezing level to 0-1200m.

Tues- no new snow. Winds light NW switching to light SE                      

Freezing level to 500-2700m

Wed- No new snow.  Winds light SE                                                    

Freezing level to 1200-3600 m. 

Prepared by Bill Phipps